Led by marine spatial scientist Dr Iliana Chollett, in close collaboration with researchers from global environment non-profit The Nature Conservancy (TNC), the paper – published today in the journal Global Change Biology – identifies areas of Caribbean reef system with strongest potential to withstand the effects of climate change and continue their vital role in sustaining ocean biodiversity.Ĭomparing factors including vulnerability of corals to thermal stress from warming waters, exposure to hurricane damage, and coral larvae connectivity – across four contrasting future climate scenarios and 57 different climate models – the team found that areas of highest potential as reef ‘refugia’ are predominantly located along the northern shoreline of Cuba, with other promising sites clustered around the Bahamas, Dominican Republic, Guadeloupe, Haiti, eastern Jamaica, and the U.S.

As Earth’s ecosystems struggle to adapt to the pace of human-driven climate change, a new study focusing on Caribbean coral reefs provides lessons for conservation planners worldwide who are working to protect irreplaceable habitats in the face of an uncertain future.

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